EBM NEWSDESK ANALYSIS- Nick Staunton
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EBM NEWSDESK ANALYSIS
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SubscribeTrump Signs Iran Deal: Sanctions to Go, Frozen Funds Released and Hormuz Reopens — But the Hard Part Has Not Yet Begun
A 14-point memorandum of understanding ends four months of war and unlocks billions in economic relief for Tehran. It also defers almost every question that matters.
The Deal Is Signed
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on Monday, formally committing the United States to ending its naval blockade of Iranian ports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and entering 60 days of nuclear negotiations with Tehran. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed on behalf of the Iranian side.
The 14-point MOU — the details of which were read aloud by US officials on a press call on Wednesday as Trump addressed the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France — represents the most significant diplomatic agreement between Washington and Tehran since the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump himself tore up in his first term. It ends a conflict that began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, disrupted global energy markets, closed the world’s most critical oil shipping lane and inflicted significant economic damage across Europe, Asia and the Gulf.
The written text of the MOU has not yet been publicly released, though US officials confirmed the language is final and signed.
What the Agreement Contains
The framework is structured around immediate concessions and deferred obligations. On the US side, the commitments are substantial and, in several cases, immediate.
The Treasury Department will issue waivers allowing the export of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and all related services — including banking transactions, insurance and transportation — immediately upon signing. That represents a significant and immediate financial benefit for Tehran, which has operated under punishing sanctions since 2018.
The MOU also states that the US “undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets” of Iran. Those frozen assets are estimated at approximately $100 billion, though the release is not immediate — it is tied to future Iranian compliance with the agreement’s terms.
If a final deal is reached within the 60-day negotiating window, the US commits to terminating all sanctions against Iran. A separate provision calls for the US to work with regional partners — specifically Gulf states — to develop a $300 billion reconstruction and economic development fund for Iran. Vice President Vance confirmed the fund would be financed by Gulf nations rather than American taxpayers. “No American money, not a cent, ever, full stop,” Vance told Fox News.
On the Iranian side, Tehran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons, agrees to allow safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without charge for 60 days, and commits to further negotiations on its enriched uranium stockpile. The specific mechanism for addressing that stockpile — Iran holds hundreds of pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, well above civilian use levels — is to be “mutually agreed” in the subsequent talks.
The Questions the MOU Leaves Open
The gap between what the MOU announces and what it actually resolves is significant. Iran’s ballistic missile programme — which Trump cited as a direct threat to the United States when entering the conflict — is not mentioned. Iran’s network of proxy forces across the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Houthi forces in Yemen, is similarly absent from the text. The agreement says nothing to constrain Iranian support for those groups.
The Hormuz toll question — which has hung over markets since the preliminary peace announcement last week — is addressed but not settled. The MOU commits Iran to toll-free passage for 60 days, after which negotiations with Oman will “define the future administration” of the strait. Iranian officials have consistently signalled their intention to impose a transit fee after that window. Whether the world’s tanker operators will face a permanent Iranian levy on Hormuz passage remains an open question — and a significant one for global energy markets.
The frozen funds issue contains its own ambiguity. Iranian state media claimed Tehran would receive immediate access to frozen assets upon signing. US officials denied this, insisting release would be tied to compliance. The MOU language — that funds will be made “fully available” upon “implementation” of the agreement — leaves room for competing interpretations. Iranian semi-official media separately reported that Tehran would not begin final nuclear negotiations until half its frozen funds are released, oil sanctions are suspended and the blockade is lifted. The sequencing dispute between the two sides has not been resolved by the document’s signing.
The Regional Stakes
The deal’s most immediate controversy concerns Israel. The removal of all sanctions on Iran and the release of billions in frozen assets could, critics argue, substantially increase the resources available to Iranian proxy forces — Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi fighters and Shia militias in Iraq — at a moment when several of those conflicts remain active. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his first public comments on the agreement, noted pointedly that he and Trump “do not always see eye to eye.”
The Gulf states present a more complicated picture. The MOU’s provision that Oman will negotiate with Iran over the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day window grants Tehran ongoing leverage over a waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have no alternative routing. They will be unable to avoid Iranian terms, whatever those prove to be.
For European energy importers, the deal’s immediate effect is relief — lower oil prices, supply chain normalisation and reduced inflation pressure. The medium-term outlook is cloudier. An Iran with sanctions relief, unfrozen assets and restored oil revenues is a significantly more economically capable actor in a region that remains deeply unstable.
Markets and the 60-Day Clock
Oil markets have already priced in the reopening of Hormuz aggressively, with Brent crude having fallen more than 20% from its war-era peak. The next significant market test is whether the 60-day nuclear negotiating window produces a final deal — or collapses, as multiple previous ceasefire attempts did during this conflict.
The MOU is best understood as a ceasefire with economic incentives attached. The war ends. Hormuz opens. Sanctions are eased. In return, Iran agrees to talk about its nuclear programme. Whether those talks produce durable constraints on Iranian enrichment, or whether the pattern of the 2015 deal — concessions upfront, fragile compliance, eventual collapse — repeats itself, will determine whether this agreement is remembered as a diplomatic breakthrough or an expensive deferral.
Trump, speaking at the G7 in Evian, was characteristically assured. “When we have a chance, we’ll do it,” he said of Iran’s enriched material, “but in the meantime, we have cameras on every inch of it.” The cameras, and the 60 days, now begin.
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