The World’s Biggest Oil Company Says the Safety Net Is Almost Gone

London, 5 October 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Brad Adams

On Monday, 5 October, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that global oil stockpiles have fallen to “scarily thin” levels. He said markets will stay under pressure until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Planned releases of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel by major economies will bring temporary relief, he said, but won’t fix the gap between supply and demand. His most striking warning was about timing. Even after Hormuz fully reopens, it could take up to two years for consuming countries to rebuild their stocks.

That matters most for Europe. The continent has spent the past week arguing over whether to release its emergency diesel reserves under pressure from Washington. Nasser’s message is that whatever Europe releases now will be very hard to replace. Every barrel drawn down this winter is a barrel the continent may not have next winter.

Why Stocks Are So Low

The numbers have been building all year. In May, Nasser said the world had already lost about one billion barrels of oil since the Iran war began. He warned that every extra week Hormuz stayed shut removed roughly 100 million more barrels from the market.

Stockpiles filled the gap. Governments and companies drew down reserves to keep fuel flowing, which is exactly what reserves are for. The problem is that they have now been used up faster than anyone planned, and refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel have been hit hardest. Fuel prices have risen even faster than crude.

Crude flows have improved recently, which drove last week’s relief rally. But oil arriving now goes straight into daily use. Very little is left over to refill the tanks.

Europe’s Weak Spot

Europe is more exposed than most. It no longer refines enough of its own fuel, after closing around 30 refineries since 2009, as we set out in our Weekend Read on diesel. That leaves it depending on imports at the very moment stocks are scarce everywhere.

The economic cost is already visible. Energy prices are feeding inflation, which came in above forecasts in all four of the eurozone’s biggest economies in September. Thin stocks also make prices jumpy. With no cushion left, any fresh disruption, such as another tanker attack in Hormuz, could send prices sharply higher.

Aramco’s Own Position

Nasser is not a neutral observer. Aramco benefits from high prices, and he has long argued that the world has underinvested in oil. His company is now looking for alternative export routes and more overseas storage so it depends less on any single route. Even so, his warning is consistent with what governments themselves are doing: scrambling to release reserves while knowing they can’t easily be rebuilt.

The Call

Nasser’s numbers are worth taking seriously, whatever his interests. Europe has been treating its reserves as a tool to calm prices this winter. They are really insurance, and the insurance is running out. A G7 release of 100 million barrels covers about one week of the shortfall Nasser described in the spring. Europe should release stocks only where it has to, and start planning now for how to refill them. Otherwise the next shock will find the tanks empty.

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