FTSE Grinds Higher as Gold, Iran and Nvidia Keep Markets on Edge

LONDON, 25 August 2026 — EBM NEWSDESK ANALYSIS- Nick Staunton

Markets are holding their nerve as tougher US sanctions on Iran, renewed pressure on the dollar and Nvidia’s looming results pull investors in different directions. London’s FTSE 100 is proving unusually resilient, helped by miners and its relatively low exposure to the technology sector, while gold and Bitcoin are benefiting from a broader search for alternatives to US assets.

London finds support in miners

Markets have entered something of a holding pattern. Investors are assessing the impact of tighter US sanctions on Iran while simultaneously waiting for the latest evidence of whether the extraordinary spending cycle around artificial intelligence remains intact when Nvidia reports its latest results.

Against that backdrop, the FTSE 100 looks set to continue grinding higher. London’s blue-chip index has proved remarkably resilient given the mixture of geopolitical tension, stubborn inflation concerns and uncertainty over the future path of interest rates. One explanation is structural. Unlike the S&P 500 and other technology-heavy indices, the FTSE has relatively limited exposure to the biggest AI and semiconductor names, leaving it less vulnerable when enthusiasm towards technology stocks wobbles.

Instead, heavyweight miners are providing support. That matters because a renewed rise in metals prices — and particularly gold — is improving the earnings outlook for some of the FTSE’s largest constituents at precisely the moment when global technology shares are becoming more volatile.

Gold and Bitcoin ride the debasement trade

Gold has returned to a more than three-month high as investors position for a weaker dollar amid concerns over US debt, government borrowing and the risk that policy ultimately puts further pressure on the currency.

The so-called debasement trade is gaining traction: investors are looking for assets that cannot easily be diluted through monetary policy or expanding government balance sheets. Gold is the traditional beneficiary, but Bitcoin is increasingly being treated by some investors as a more speculative digital alternative.

Bitcoin has surged above $80,000 in one of its strongest multi-day rallies in years as expectations of dollar weakness drive demand. The US Treasury’s move to increase purchases of longer-dated government bonds in an attempt to lower borrowing costs appears to have added to the momentum, with investors questioning whether such measures could ultimately weaken confidence in the dollar.

For the FTSE, the consequences have been beneficial. Higher gold and broader metals prices feed directly into the outlook for miners, giving London an advantage over markets whose performance is far more dependent on expensive technology stocks.

Iran keeps oil markets tense

Energy markets are calmer but hardly comfortable.

Brent crude is settling just below $92 a barrel as traders weigh the latest stage of the Middle East crisis. Iran has signalled that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation even as Washington intensifies efforts to restrict its oil revenues.

President Donald Trump is increasing pressure on countries that continue trading with Tehran, including China, warning that customers of Iranian oil could themselves face US sanctions unless they reduce commercial ties.

That creates a difficult calculation for energy markets. Investors are still trying to determine whether the additional pressure will push Iran towards a negotiated breakthrough or instead harden positions and delay any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

For now, neither outcome looks certain. That uncertainty is likely to keep a geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices.

Nvidia faces the expectations problem

Technology investors, meanwhile, are waiting for Nvidia.

Few companies now carry greater significance for global markets. The chipmaker has become the financial pulse of the AI investment cycle, and with valuations across the sector increasingly demanding, investors want evidence that spending on AI infrastructure is still accelerating rather than merely remaining high.

The focus will be on Nvidia’s largest customers — the hyperscalers including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet — and whether their capital expenditure plans continue to support long-term demand for data centres, GPUs and AI infrastructure.

The difficulty is that cracks are becoming more visible. Opposition to new data-centre construction is increasing in some markets, questions remain over whether AI returns can justify the scale of spending, and Chinese semiconductor companies are becoming more credible competitors.

Memory-chip stocks have already come under fresh pressure. Micron and SanDisk have fallen sharply, while South Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix have also suffered renewed declines. Reports that Apple is seeking permission to source memory chips from Chinese manufacturers, including CXMT, have added another layer of uncertainty.

Washington has publicly pushed back. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said the US does not want Apple buying Chinese memory.

Technology gets caught in geopolitics

The problem for large technology companies is that commercial logic and geopolitics are increasingly pulling in opposite directions.

The global shortage of memory chips and enormous demand from AI data centres create a strong incentive for companies such as Apple to diversify supply. Yet the Trump administration’s trade policy makes reliance on Chinese suppliers increasingly politically sensitive.

Iran adds another potential complication. If Washington follows through with secondary sanctions against countries and companies continuing to do business with Tehran, the consequences could stretch beyond energy markets and begin influencing supply-chain decisions across technology.

China is already at the centre of the semiconductor debate. Any further deterioration in US-China trade relations could make Western groups more cautious about buying critical components from Chinese manufacturers even when price and availability make doing so commercially attractive.

Companies are therefore being forced to balance three competing priorities: cost, security of supply and political risk.

That is not an easy equation.

Wealth begins looking beyond America

Against this increasingly complicated background, there are signs that some long-term investors are reducing their dependence on US equities after years of extraordinary returns.

One of Europe’s wealthiest families is providing a striking example.

The Rausing family, heirs to the fortune created through Tetra Pak, sold more than $1bn of US equities during the second quarter, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of its US stock portfolio. The disposals included a 15% holding in Sensient Technologies worth at least $660mn, alongside more than 100 other US positions, including holdings in Wells Fargo, Chipotle and Abbott Laboratories.

At the same time, the family has increased its exposure to Swedish private-equity group EQT. Its stake now stands at around 6%, making the Rausings one of EQT’s largest shareholders.

The move is significant because it captures a broader shift in portfolio thinking. US equities remain exceptionally powerful, but valuations — particularly across technology — assume an unusually favourable future. Investors with multi-decade horizons are therefore becoming more willing to crystallise profits and diversify geographically and by asset class.

That does not mean a correction is imminent. Expensive markets can remain expensive for years. But it does suggest that some of the world’s most sophisticated pools of private capital are becoming more selective.

Private markets gain another advantage

The Rausings’ shift towards EQT also highlights the appeal of private markets at a time when public markets are increasingly driven by short-term swings in geopolitics, interest-rate expectations and technology sentiment.

EQT returned almost €17bn to investors during the first half of the year, demonstrating the scale of capital now being recycled through private markets.

For investors accustomed to the volatility surrounding Nvidia, US trade policy and daily movements in the dollar, private equity offers a different proposition: longer investment horizons, less visible day-to-day pricing and greater control over portfolio companies.

After one of the strongest bull markets in US equities in modern history, diversification is no longer simply about reducing risk. It is becoming a question of where future returns are most likely to come from.

For the moment, London is benefiting from that shift.

The FTSE’s lack of technology exposure once looked like a weakness. In the current market, it is beginning to look like protection.