London, 26 October 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Brad Adams
The FTSE 100 has steadied after a gloomy week, and Wall Street looks set to pause its recent sell-off. But investors remain nervous about inflation, stretched AI valuations and Wednesday’s Budget, which business owners fear will hit them hard.
Airtel Money Delivers in Its First Test
London’s newest big listing has made a solid start. Airtel Money, the African mobile money business, reported a 25% rise in revenue to $830m in its first results since floating. Profit after tax rose to $228m from $188m, and its customer base grew to 56.7 million.
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SubscribeAfrica leads the world in mobile money, where millions of people pay, save and borrow through their phones without ever opening a bank account. It is a reminder that the revolt against traditional card networks is not just a European story.
The shares, however, are still trading below their 196p offer price. That probably says more about investors weighing up the valuation than about doubts over growth. Margins on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation narrowed to 48% from 50.8%, partly because of changes to agreements within the wider Airtel group, but management expects them to improve in the second half. Revenue per user and transaction values are both rising, suggesting customers are using the service more as well as signing up in greater numbers.
Competition from Kenya’s M-Pesa remains fierce. But after losing high-profile growth companies to overseas exchanges, London needed this listing to work. Its success would strengthen the case that the City can still attract ambitious fintech businesses.
Oil Eases, but the Risks Remain
Brent crude has slipped back slightly from Friday’s highs to around $115 a barrel, after the surge above $114 last week. The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport offered some relief, but the threat of further Houthi attacks remains high. So do fears of renewed US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after the mid-term elections. Supplies are still flowing out of the region at close to pre-war levels, but energy markets are likely to stay volatile.
Gilts Find Some Calm
UK government bond markets have steadied ahead of the Budget, with ten-year yields edging lower. Britain has benefited to some extent from investors’ nerves about France, where protests and Marine Le Pen’s costly economic programme have raised fresh doubts about European fiscal stability.
But UK borrowing costs remain near two-decade highs, and the Chancellor has little room to manoeuvre. Public borrowing hit £24.5bn last month, above forecasts, according to the Office for National Statistics. With inflation at 3.5% and several rate rises expected from the Bank of England, few giveaways are expected.
The Founders’ Fear
The government says it wants to support business, but many owners are bracing for bad news. Rumours of a new capital gains tax raid have been played down. Attention has instead turned to Business Asset Disposal Relief, formerly Entrepreneurs’ Relief, which cuts the tax owners pay when they sell their companies.
Reports suggest the relief could be scaled back again, possibly replaced by a new incentive for owners who reinvest their sale proceeds in other UK businesses. The aim, to channel more money into start-ups and scale-ups, sounds sensible. But it would create yet more uncertainty.
For many founders, the business is their pension. They spend years taking risks, creating jobs and often paying themselves little, and the sale is when that effort finally pays off. Repeatedly changing the rules risks eroding that reward. A pre-Budget survey of wealthy investors by Wealth Club found 16% were considering moving abroad because of recent tax changes. That echoes the wider exodus of wealth that has seen Britain’s private schools head for Dubai.
Amazon and eBay in the Firing Line
The Chancellor is also reported to be considering making online marketplaces such as Amazon and eBay responsible for collecting VAT from sellers on their platforms, including UK sellers with turnover above £90,000. That could help level the playing field for high street shops and potentially fund business rate cuts. It would come on top of earlier changes to the taxation of small parcels, aimed at stopping overseas retailers undercutting British businesses.
The Bottom Line
This Budget looks set to tinker rather than transform, and the tinkering will fall mainly on small business owners and founders. Some of the ideas, such as making the platforms collect VAT, make sense. But constant changes to the rules on business sales send the wrong signal at the worst time. Capital needs confidence, and Britain needs both new start-ups and large homegrown companies that can grow and list in London. Airtel Money shows the City can still attract them. The Chancellor’s job on Wednesday is not to undermine that by making investors wonder whether the rules will change again just as they commit their money.
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