London, 26 October 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Katie Winearls
The global minimum tax was meant to stop multinationals parking profits in tax havens. Instead, some of the havens are turning out to be its biggest winners.
Guernsey expects to collect £88m from the new rules in 2025, their first year of operation, according to the Financial Times. That is double its earlier forecast and almost twice the £48m it raised from all corporate taxes the year before. Jersey expects “tens of millions of pounds” more. Bermuda, which had no corporate tax until last year, has raised its first-year estimate from $188m to $291m, about a fifth of its total tax take.
How the Havens Turned the Tables
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SubscribeThe rules, agreed by more than 140 countries through the OECD and known as Pillar Two, set a 15% minimum effective tax rate for multinationals with annual revenues above €750m. If a company pays less than 15% somewhere, another country can charge a “top-up” tax to close the gap.
The havens spotted the opportunity quickly. Rather than let the top-up flow to the US, Britain or Germany, where the companies are headquartered, they introduced their own domestic minimum taxes to collect it themselves. Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man aligned their approach to bring in a 15% domestic rate for large groups from 2025.
The money that campaigners hoped would flow back to big economies is instead being collected in St Peter Port and Hamilton.
Few Companies Are Leaving
The havens’ bigger fear, that companies would flee once the tax advantage narrowed, has not yet come true. Guernsey’s treasury lead, Charles Parkinson, said fewer than 10% of multinationals were relocating. Most have stayed for the islands’ other attractions: legal systems, financial expertise and stable regulation.
Ireland is seeing a similar effect on a far larger scale. It expects the rules to add €3.5bn a year to its already record corporate tax receipts.
A Windfall That May Not Last
Both islands are treating the money with caution. Parkinson described it as temporary, because companies can still restructure to reduce their bills. Bermuda’s premier, David Burt, has warned that 2025 could mark the peak. Jersey has flagged “substantial uncertainty” over how much it will receive and for how long.
The wider regime is also under strain. The Trump administration has rejected the deal, and last year the G7 agreed to exempt American-headquartered groups from key parts of it. That has punched a hole in the system just as its revenues are being measured. The OECD now expects the tax to raise $91bn to $155bn a year globally, less than first hoped.
Why It Matters for Europe
Europe’s big economies need the money. Britain’s borrowing is running £6bn above forecast, the global bond sell-off has driven up the cost of debt, and the IMF is urging rich nations to cut borrowing. Seeing the minimum tax enrich small offshore centres rather than national treasuries will be awkward for finance ministers who sold the deal to voters as a crackdown on avoidance.
It also comes as Washington pushes back hard against European rules it dislikes, as the row over Starlink has shown. And the wealthy remain mobile, as Britain’s private schools heading for Dubai demonstrate.
The Call
The global minimum tax is working, just not for the people who designed it. The havens have been smarter than expected. By collecting the top-up themselves, they keep both the companies and the cash. The big winners are small, well-run offshore centres, while the large economies that pushed for reform see less than they hoped. With the US largely outside the system, expect the deal to keep weakening. The havens are right to treat this as a windfall rather than a new normal.
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