London, 9 October 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Brad Adams
Chip stocks recovered this morning after one of the most uneasy days for AI investors this year. On Thursday, the FT reported, and CNBC later confirmed, that OpenAI had told investors it expected annualised revenue of $50bn to the end of September, well below the $68bn it had suggested only a month earlier. Nvidia fell 2%, CoreWeave dropped 5.7%, and Oracle, Micron and Super Micro all lost ground. SoftBank, which has tied its future to OpenAI, fell nearly 4% in Tokyo.
US futures pointed higher this morning as chip stocks gained 1–2%. A person familiar with the matter explained that the $68bn figure had included gross revenue earned through partners. That eased the panic, but the episode raised a question that investors had mostly avoided until now: how reliable are the numbers behind the AI boom?
The IPO Window Is Narrowing
The revenue figures weren’t the only warning. In Australia, Firmus, a large Nvidia-backed AI data centre operator, cancelled a planned $5bn listing that would have been the second-largest in Australian history. It blamed poor market conditions and volatility. Cerebras withdrew its IPO filing last week.
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SubscribeOpenAI has also delayed the listing many expected this year. Last month Sam Altman said “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public”. That is a striking thing for a company to say when the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are close to record highs. Companies usually list when the market is strong. When they hold back at the top, it often means they are worried the strength won’t last.
Why It Matters Beyond Silicon Valley
The AI build-out is now big enough to affect the wider financial system. Investors are moving away from government bonds because of rising national debts and putting money into bonds issued by the large cloud companies instead. That has helped pay for the data centres and chips behind the boom. If revenue at the companies at the centre of it, led by OpenAI, comes in below what investors were told, that flow of money could reverse quickly.
Europe is exposed too. Many of Europe’s fastest-growing start-ups are AI companies whose valuations assume continued confidence in the technology. Mistral and Aleph Alpha are building Europe’s own AI models and will have to raise more money soon. A weaker AI market would make that harder and more expensive.
The Rest of the Picture
Elsewhere, the pressures are familiar. The euro is steady around $1.12 after Monday’s 17-month low, as covered yesterday, helped by a modest recovery in French bonds after Marine Le Pen promised to cut the deficit. Oil fell back after Donald Trump said he would not authorise an attack on Iran before November’s midterm elections, although Iranian attacks have again almost closed the Strait of Hormuz. Gold is back above $4,200.
What I Think
One day’s sell-off doesn’t end the AI boom, and the quick recovery shows how much investors still want to believe in it. But this week’s signals all point the same way. OpenAI’s revenue fell short of what investors had been told, a $5bn IPO was pulled, and a market leader chose not to list near a market peak. Third-quarter results start next week with the big banks. If the large tech companies can’t show that their AI spending is turning into profit, investors will start to apply the same scrutiny across the whole sector.
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