The Man Behind Geopolitical Investing

How former diplomat Sertan Ayçiçek is building Royal Funds® around a new investment philosophy

For decades, investing followed a familiar playbook: study financial statements, analyse earnings, monitor interest rates, track inflation and build valuation models. It was a framework that shaped generations of investors and, for a long time, it worked.

Today, however, markets are increasingly influenced by forces that cannot be found on a balance sheet. A shipping route closes. A government restricts semiconductor exports. A new defence alliance is formed. Critical minerals become strategic assets. Artificial intelligence evolves from a commercial innovation into a source of geopolitical competition.

Investment outcomes are now being shaped by decisions made far beyond the boardroom.

For Sertan Ayçiçek, founder of Geneva-based Royal Funds®, these developments are not isolated events. They are evidence that the investment landscape itself is changing.

After years working at the intersection of diplomacy, international business and global strategy, Ayçiçek came to a simple conclusion: the next generation of investors will not only read financial statements. They will read the world.

That idea has become the foundation of Royal Funds®.

Rather than treating geopolitics as an unpredictable external risk, the firm seeks to understand how long-term political and strategic developments influence capital allocation, technological leadership, industrial policy and economic value.

Its approach combines traditional financial analysis with geopolitical intelligence, macroeconomics, strategic foresight and technology research.

According to Ayçiçek, the objective is not to predict wars or individual political events. It is to recognise that geopolitical transformation increasingly shapes investment outcomes.

“For decades, investors asked which companies would define the future,” he says. “The next decade will require a broader question: which countries, technologies and strategic priorities will shape the future of the global economy?”

From diplomacy to investment strategy

Ayçiçek’s background has played a central role in shaping the firm’s philosophy. His experience across diplomacy, international relations and business exposed him to the ways in which political decisions can alter trade flows, redirect investment and change the strategic value of industries.

That perspective has become particularly relevant as governments take a more active role in economic policy.

Semiconductor production, energy security, defence manufacturing and critical-mineral supply chains are no longer viewed solely as commercial issues. They are increasingly treated as questions of national resilience and strategic autonomy.

This shift is creating new risks, but also new investment opportunities.

Royal Funds® is being built around the idea that investors need a broader analytical framework to understand those opportunities. Financial strength remains important, but so too does a company’s exposure to political risk, industrial policy, supply-chain security and technological competition.

Building a geopolitical investment framework

This philosophy has inspired Royal Funds®’ plans to establish what the firm describes as the world’s first Geopolitical Intelligence-Driven Investment Fund.

The proposed strategy is based on the belief that geopolitical intelligence should operate as a core analytical framework alongside traditional financial analysis.

Its focus includes long-term structural themes such as artificial intelligence, critical minerals, energy security, cybersecurity, strategic infrastructure, defence technologies and resilient supply chains.

These sectors increasingly sit at the centre of government policy and international competition. They are also attracting substantial public and private investment as countries seek to reduce dependencies and strengthen domestic capabilities.

For investors, the challenge is not simply to identify industries with strong growth prospects. It is to determine which companies, technologies and jurisdictions are positioned to benefit from the emerging geopolitical order.

Royal Funds® aims to place that question at the centre of its investment process.

Why Geneva matters

The firm’s location is also significant.

From its headquarters in Geneva, a city associated with diplomacy, finance and international cooperation, Royal Funds® aims to contribute to a wider conversation about how investment thinking must evolve in an increasingly fragmented and strategically competitive world.

Geneva offers proximity to international institutions, financial expertise and diplomatic networks. For a firm seeking to combine investment analysis with geopolitical intelligence, that intersection is central to its identity.

A new investment discipline?

History suggests that every era reshapes the way capital is invested.

Industrialisation accelerated the development of value investing. Globalisation rewarded growth strategies. The digital revolution expanded quantitative investing and data-driven portfolio management.

Ayçiçek believes today’s geopolitical transformation may require investors to widen their analytical lens once again.

The argument is straightforward: if political decisions are increasingly influencing supply chains, energy markets, technology access and industrial investment, then geopolitical analysis can no longer be treated as a secondary consideration.

Whether geopolitical investing develops into a widely adopted discipline remains to be seen. The concept is still emerging, and its success will ultimately depend on whether geopolitical intelligence can be translated into consistent investment decisions rather than broad strategic commentary.

What is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, however, is that understanding the world beyond financial markets may prove to be one of the defining investment advantages of the decade ahead.