EBM Markets Desk — By Anthony Gill
Monday opened with a reminder that the most interesting market action is no longer happening in New York. South Korea is breaking records, SoftBank is reshaping the Nikkei, EasyJet is fielding a takeover approach it doesn’t want, and Bitcoin is quietly losing the confidence of investors who spent the first quarter backing it. Here is where things stand as European markets open the new month.
Asia-Pacific: Korea Leads, Japan Follows, China Stumbles
South Korea’s Kospi surged 3.7% to close at a fresh record high — its strongest single-session performance in months and a move that reflects the structural weight of its two dominant constituents. Samsung Electronics added 3% and also closed at an all-time high, while SK Hynix continued its run of strength. Together, Samsung and SK Hynix account for over 40% of the Kospi index, meaning the index is as much a semiconductor play as it is a broader Korean market barometer. As we reported in our analysis of Korea’s trillion-dollar semiconductor surge and its implications for global markets, the structural tailwind behind Korean chip stocks is tied directly to AI infrastructure demand — and that demand shows no sign of moderating.
Japan’s Nikkei added 0.9%, with SoftBank contributing a 14% single-session surge following its announcement of a €75 billion AI infrastructure investment across France. The move makes SoftBank the most valuable Nikkei constituent by market capitalisation. As we explored in our analysis of SoftBank’s €75 billion French AI bet and what it means for European infrastructure, the investment is the largest single foreign commitment to European AI infrastructure in history — and the market has priced it accordingly.
Join The European Business Briefing
New subscribers this quarter are entered into a draw to win a Rolex Submariner. Join 40,000+ founders, investors and executives who read EBM every day.
SubscribeElsewhere in the region, Australia’s ASX 200 was essentially flat, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.0% and the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%. India’s Nifty 50 was also down 0.3% into the close — a reflection of the cautious mood across emerging markets as US dollar strength reasserted itself overnight.
European Equities: Subdued Across the Board, EasyJet the Exception
Unlike their Asian counterparts, European stock indices were softer across the board in early Monday trade with activity relatively subdued. The standout exception was EasyJet, which gapped sharply higher on the open following Friday’s confirmation from US private credit group Castlelake that it is considering making a bid for the low-cost airline.
EasyJet’s board responded this morning by describing any potential approach as “highly opportunistic” — citing the temporary depression of its share price due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East and its impact on customer confidence and jet fuel costs. The board simultaneously confirmed it would consider any formal proposal should one be made. At the time of writing, EasyJet shares were up 8%. As we reported in our analysis of EasyJet’s takeover situation and the June 26 Takeover Code deadline, Castlelake has confirmed it has not yet approached the board — and under UK Takeover Code rules must either table a firm intention to bid or walk away by 5pm on June 26.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was meanwhile in Taipei at Computex, unveiling the company’s N1X processor — a move he described as leading to the “reinvention of the computer.” Arm Holdings surged 12% on the back of Nvidia’s announcement. As we explored in our coverage of Nvidia’s RTX Spark and its challenge to Apple and Intel in the PC market, the company’s push into laptop and consumer computing represents the final frontier of its ambition to control the full AI hardware stack from data centre to desktop.
US Markets and the Iran Factor
US stock index futures were firmer across the board in early Monday trade, carrying the momentum of a strong May into the new month. For the month just closed, the Dow added close to 3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 5% and 8% respectively — driven by an earnings season that significantly exceeded expectations.
According to FactSet, of the 97% of S&P 500 constituents that have now reported first-quarter results, 85% exceeded analyst earnings estimates and 81% beat on sales. Year-on-year earnings growth came in at approximately 28.6% — the strongest reading since Q4 2021 when the global economy was rebounding from Covid lockdowns. This week’s significant earnings updates include Palo Alto Networks and Broadcom, with Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report the macro event most likely to move Federal Reserve expectations.
The Iran situation remains the central geopolitical variable. A 60-day memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire was agreed last week, raising hopes of a deal. President Trump then tempered that optimism on Sunday, stating he was “in no hurry” to finalise an agreement and warning that military action remains on the table if negotiations fail to deliver guarantees on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial shipping.
On rates, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in approximately a 50% probability of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end — driven by concerns that energy-related inflation pressures will persist. The Dollar Index pushed back toward the lower end of its established range of 98.80 to 99.20, having briefly broken below 98.50 on Friday as peace deal optimism temporarily weakened safe-haven demand for the greenback. USDJPY was trading at 159.50, with markets watching the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting later this month for any signal on rate normalisation.
Commodities: Oil Cautious, Gold Volatile, Bitcoin Losing Ground
Oil prices edged higher as the weekend failed to produce a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. Israel’s expanded military operations in Lebanon added a further layer of geopolitical risk, raising concerns that momentum toward a ceasefire extension may be harder to sustain. Despite the uncertainty, prices remain near the lower end of the range established since early April — suggesting markets retain a residual expectation that a deal will eventually be concluded.
Gold’s session was characterised by the same volatility that defined last week. Having broken below $4,400, the metal surged back toward $4,600 on peace deal optimism before pulling back again as Trump’s Sunday statement dampened sentiment. Gold was struggling to hold above $4,500 at the time of writing. Silver followed a similar pattern — breaking below $72, rallying to $76.68 on Friday afternoon, then gapping down below $74.50 on the Monday open before buyers returned. Both metals remain inversely correlated to dollar strength — meaning their near-term trajectory is as much a function of Federal Reserve expectations as it is of the Iran situation.
Bitcoin’s position is more structurally concerning. Having shown impressive resilience through the first ten weeks of the US-Iran conflict, support around $75,000 finally cracked on Wednesday evening and the asset fell quickly to below $73,000. The next significant downside target is $70,000, with the February low of $60,000 in play if that level fails. Sentiment has soured rapidly — not because of any specific negative catalyst, but because investors who held Bitcoin through the conflict are now comparing its returns unfavourably with the stunning gains posted by AI-related semiconductor stocks since late March. As we reported in our analysis of the Coinbase vs SEC stablecoin legislation battle and what it signals about crypto’s regulatory moment, the crypto market is navigating a critical juncture where regulatory clarity and capital competition from AI stocks are simultaneously shaping sentiment.
Related Analysis
SoftBank Invests €75bn in France — Europe’s Biggest AI Infrastructure Bet Ever — The announcement that drove SoftBank’s 14% single-session surge and reshaped the Nikkei’s composition in a single trading day.
EasyJet Stock Jumps as US Fund Circles for an Opportunistic Takeover — The full analysis behind today’s most active stock in European trade — and why the June 26 Takeover Code deadline matters.
Korea’s Trillion-Dollar Chip Surge Leaves Europe’s Markets in the Shade — The structural story behind today’s Kospi record — and why Samsung and SK Hynix are becoming the most important barometers of global AI infrastructure demand.
