London, 13 November 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Katie Winearls
Gold fell to within a couple of dollars of $3,850 an ounce on Thursday, its lowest level in more than 13 months, as a surging US dollar caught the bulls out. The trigger was a hawkish speech from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday, followed by hotter-than-expected US inflation data. Markets now put the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points in December at 100%, and some traders are asking whether the Fed could go to 50. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is back above 5%.
For Europe, the stronger dollar hurts. The euro has dropped to a fresh 18-month low, sterling is pressing against major support at $1.32, and the dollar index came within a few ticks of 103, a level last seen in April last year. Dollar-yen has broken above 160 for the first time since early September, reviving speculation that Tokyo may have to intervene again to support the yen. All eyes are now on today’s US wholesale inflation figures.
Central Banks Fighting the Last War
Most central bankers blame the inflation surge on energy prices since the US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February, consistent with the picture behind eurozone inflation hitting 4%. Few have acknowledged that oil has fallen about 20% in the past fortnight. Crude managed a rare up day on Thursday as short sellers took profits, helped by a more conciliatory tone from President Trump after the Republicans’ midterm defeat. Overnight, he wrote that the war with Iran could end even without a deal with Tehran. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports on the Strait of Hormuz continues, however, and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have not stopped.
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SubscribeSilver is back below $50 an ounce but has not yet broken this month’s lows, which offers the bulls a small crumb of comfort. Like gold, its direction depends on the dollar.
Nvidia Bounces, Asia Doesn’t
Nvidia shares rebounded about 13% from Thursday’s low after the company announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as chief executive and left the board, ending a 33-year tenure. Chief financial officer Colette Kress has been named interim CEO, according to Nvidia’s SEC filing and Al Jazeera. The board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by Chinese intelligence, and says it has no reason to believe national security was compromised. The stock had already fallen 22% from October’s record before the scandal broke. Even after the bounce, it is a long way from that high, with quarterly earnings due on Tuesday.
The rebound barely reached Asia. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.5%, but SoftBank fell 5.1% and Kioxia 2.3%. Korea’s Kospi lost 1%, with SK Hynix down 3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.6%, India’s Nifty 50 0.9% and Australia’s ASX 200 0.7%. On Wall Street, futures were mixed. Microsoft fell more than 2% as it struggled to contain the global outage affecting Outlook and Teams.
My Read
The real story this week is the dollar. A Fed that hikes into falling oil prices is fighting last spring’s inflation, and Europe pays twice: a weaker euro imports inflation, and higher US yields pull capital across the Atlantic, as the global bond sell-off has already shown. Gold’s slide may be the final flush-out of the longs. If today’s wholesale figures come in hot, though, the dollar has further to run, and the ECB will face its hardest call of the year.
