London, 3 November 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Katie Winearls
Europe has given itself just four days to start choosing the most powerful economic policymaker on the continent.
Eurogroup president Kyriakos Pierrakakis has asked eurozone governments to put forward candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank by Friday 6 November. Finance ministers will review the names at the Eurogroup meeting on 9 November.
The speed is deliberate. Lagarde will leave on 7 February 2027, almost nine months before her eight-year term ends, and Europe’s leaders want the succession settled well before France votes next spring.
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Lagarde has said she wants to be free to speak beyond monetary policy, admitting she cannot “remain neutral”. She has declined to say whether she will back a candidate in France’s April 2027 presidential election.
But the timing speaks for itself. With the far right polling strongly, an early exit means Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz can shape the choice of her successor. A President Le Pen, whose economic plans have alarmed investors, would have no say.
A Two-Horse Race
Two candidates lead the field.
Pablo Hernández de Cos is general manager of the Bank for International Settlements and a former governor of the Bank of Spain. He has the backing of both Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez and opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which is rare cross-party support in Spanish politics. Prediction markets make him the slight favourite.
Klaas Knot led the Dutch central bank for 14 years and has a reputation as one of the ECB’s leading hawks. Dutch prime minister Rob Jetten calls him a “perfect fit”.
Further back are former Bank of France governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel. No German has ever led the ECB, but Berlin may prefer to trade the top job for other posts.
To win, a candidate needs the backing of at least 16 of the 21 eurozone countries, representing at least 65% of the bloc’s population. EU leaders make the final decision after hearing from the European Parliament and the ECB.
A Bigger Reshuffle
This is not just about one job. Isabel Schnabel leaves the Executive Board for the IMF in January, and chief economist Philip Lane’s term ends in May. Half of the ECB’s six-member board will change within five months.
That makes a package deal likely. Paris is expected to target the chief economist role rather than seek a third French presidency, while Madrid wants a seat back after losing the vice-presidency this year.
Why Markets Should Care
Whoever wins will inherit a difficult job. The ECB has raised rates as the Iran war pushed up energy prices, Lagarde has warned of an inflation shock, and the eurozone is paying for a war it isn’t fighting. Meanwhile the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are moving in different directions on rates.
A Knot presidency would likely mean a tougher line on inflation. Hernández de Cos is seen as more pragmatic and closer to Lagarde’s consensus style.
Where This Goes
Hernández de Cos looks the safer bet. He is well respected, comes from a large southern economy and has support across Spanish politics. But the result will depend less on merit than on how the other board posts are shared out. The real negotiation starts on 9 November, and Europe’s leaders want it finished well before France votes.
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