London, 14 October 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Brad Adams
On 9 October, Donald Trump announced a diesel agreement with Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed a plan to put 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel on global markets in October, rising to half a million tonnes in November and a million in December. It works by suspending sanctions on Russian fuel exports for six months so the diesel can be sold at market prices. The Russian diesel deal has nudged oil lower. Europe’s leaders are furious, and the reason goes deeper than the money.
The European angle is uncomfortable. For four years the EU has spent political capital, and real money, weaning itself off Russian energy. Washington has now handed Moscow a commercial lifeline while Europe is still paying the bill. It is another case of Trump moving in hours while Brussels reacts.
Why Brussels Is Angry
The first objection is simple: oil money pays for the war. Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson warned that energy revenues sit at the heart of Russia’s war chest, while Estonia’s Kristen Michal called the deal a serious miscalculation. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged Washington to impose sanctions instead, arguing that ending the war would also end the damage to refineries.
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SubscribeThe timing made it worse. The announcement came days after Russian strikes killed 22 people in an apartment block, including three babies, and at least 30 more on a bus. Britain has broken ranks with Washington too. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said the UK did not back the deal and would push for tougher sanctions instead. It also exposes the double standards in Western sanctions policy.
The Real Prize for Moscow
The second objection is strategic, and it matters more. Ukraine’s cheapest and most effective weapon has been drone strikes on Russian refineries. They hit the Kremlin’s income without needing Western troops or expensive missiles.
Trump has reframed those strikes as an attack on American consumers. Since September he has pressed Kyiv to stop hitting Russian refineries, in effect blaming Ukraine for the spike in global diesel prices. He accused Zelenskyy of trying to cause problems for American farmers and ranchers.
That is the shift Europe fears. As CNN’s analysis put it, Washington is now lining up its economic interests with Moscow’s survival, even though the deal is unlikely to move diesel prices much.
It Won’t Even Fix Prices
The economic case is thin. The first 300,000 tonnes amount to roughly 2.25 million barrels. That is a rounding error in a global market. Diesel traded above $200 a barrel in early September, as Gulf tanker attacks and damage to Russian refining left Western supply badly short. The Iran energy crisis is the bigger driver here, not Russian supply.
Analysts say the G7’s 2 October decision to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves will do far more to ease prices. Kyiv’s reply was blunt. Within hours of the announcement, Ukraine hit the NZNP export terminal at Rostov-on-Don.
Where I Land
This is a bad deal on its own terms. It delivers little diesel, does little for prices, and gives Putin both cash and a propaganda win.
The bigger damage is to the alliance. Ursula von der Leyen says Ukraine’s war funding will be front and centre at this week’s European Council summit. That is the right response, but it confirms Europe is now carrying Ukraine with less American cover. Bloomberg reports that Brussels is still lobbying for US sanctions on Russia. I would not hold my breath. Europe should plan as if this deal is the new normal, not a six-month aberration.
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