London, 3 November 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Anthony Gill
America votes today, and Donald Trump has chosen to go into the midterms with a show of force. New US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight have put geopolitics back at the centre of the markets, at a moment when investors were already nervous about the tech sell-off.
London’s FTSE 100 is expected to open lower. Across Asia, the selling has become serious enough that Beijing has stepped in.
A Show of Strength Before the Vote
The Qeshm strikes appear limited, but they cut against the message of diplomacy the White House had been pushing in recent weeks. The timing looks deliberate. Trump’s approval rating has slipped as the conflict has dragged on and petrol prices have stayed painfully high. Being seen to hold the upper hand on polling day was clearly too tempting.
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SubscribeOil reacted, but not dramatically. Brent rose about 2% to above $106 a barrel. That is a long way below the $125 peak seen in April, and the modest move shows traders still expect talks to prevent a bigger escalation. For Europe, which is already paying for a war it isn’t fighting through higher energy and transport costs, any rise in crude feeds straight back into inflation.
Blue Wave or Ripple?
The polls point to a strong night for the Democrats, possibly including control of the Senate. But Republican support has been underestimated before, and markets are not pricing in a certain outcome.
One issue cuts across party lines: data centres. Voters on both sides are worried about the power bills, water use and land taken by the AI build-out. If the result signals political pressure to slow that expansion, it lands on tech stocks that are already struggling.
Apple Wins by Not Spending
Wall Street’s short rebound has faded. Investors remain uneasy about the huge sums being spent on AI infrastructure without clear evidence of returns, a concern that has dragged global markets into the red in recent weeks.
Apple has largely avoided the damage, mainly because it never joined the AI spending race. Its latest results beat expectations, with strong iPhone sales lifting revenue. But China sales were weaker than forecast and iPad demand fell short. The shares ended flat after hours. Apple did well, but not well enough for a market that now expects perfection.
Beijing Steps In
The biggest story is in Asia. Chip stocks have fallen sharply, and China has responded by quietly halting new listings. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has reportedly told banks informally to delay new IPOs and large share sales until markets stabilise. The People’s Bank of China has also announced new support measures.
The move follows a bruising October. The CSI 300 index fell 8.5% last month, its worst month in more than a decade. Beijing clearly fears that a tech-led sell-off could become a wider loss of confidence in the economy.
But the move may backfire. China has spent years encouraging companies to list at home and trying to deepen its capital markets. Shutting the door on new listings tells investors that regulators are worried, and that can make the selling worse rather than better.
My Read
Today’s three stories share a common thread: governments trying to control outcomes they can’t fully control. Trump wants strength without a wider war. Voters want AI without the power bills. Beijing wants rising share prices without real confidence behind them.
China’s IPO freeze may buy a few calm weeks, but it does nothing about the bigger questions: a weak Chinese economy and whether the hundreds of billions going into AI will ever pay off. Restricting the supply of shares can slow a sell-off, but it can’t end one. Until investors see real returns from AI and a path out of the Iran conflict, markets will stay nervous.
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