London, 28 September 2026 — EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Anthony Gill
On Sunday 27 September, Washington and Beijing published the list of goods set for lower tariffs after last week’s summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The framework covers $60 billion of trade, $30 billion of each side’s imports, and names 77 Chinese goods and more than 1,600 American products for more favourable treatment. The lists range from foie gras to breeding horses, but the most revealing item is one that is missing: China plans to cut tariffs on US farm goods except soybeans, the biggest prize of all. As Europe pays for a war it isn’t fighting, the two superpowers are quietly carving out a trading relationship of their own.
The deal is modest, but its direction matters for Europe. EU companies have spent years benefiting when the US and China fought, stepping in as Chinese buyers turned away from American goods. Every product that moves from China’s retaliation list to its shopping list is one where European exporters face renewed American competition. Brussels, meanwhile, is squeezed from both sides, with its car industry fighting Chinese rivals at home and its exporters facing US tariffs abroad.
What Is Actually on the List
The Chinese goods set for lower US tariffs are strikingly ordinary: microwave ovens, fish hooks, artificial flowers and weighing scales. Other reports add toys, sports equipment and Christmas decorations to the American side of the list.
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SubscribeChina’s list is longer and more agricultural. US exports in line for lower duties include poultry, dairy, noodles, eggs, peanuts, canned tomatoes, pure-bred breeding horses and silk. Beijing also plans to reduce levies on American seafood, wood products, cosmetics and medical devices, and will consider letting US-backed financial firms open and run branches.
Washington is presenting the deal as a real gain. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said it would improve market access for about 30% of US exports to China. Beijing’s commerce ministry said the arrangement would help stabilise trade between the two countries.
Why It Barely Moves the Needle
Trade experts are less impressed. Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation told Al Jazeera that both sides have largely listed goods that do not move the needle on overall trade flows. On China’s side, she noted, many of the farm products on the list are either not exported to China at all or not in meaningful quantities.
Scale explains the scepticism. Two-way trade between the countries fell to $495 billion in 2025, down 25% in a single year. A $60 billion framework, much of it covering goods that barely move, will not reverse that. The summit itself ended with few concrete announcements on the big disputes, from artificial intelligence to Taiwan.
Why Europe Should Watch Closely
The European risk sits in the details. Dairy, cosmetics, medical devices and seafood are exactly the categories where European exporters compete for Chinese buyers. France’s cosmetics groups, Irish and Dutch dairy and German medical technology have all benefited from American goods facing higher Chinese tariffs. Narrow that gap and European market share becomes harder to defend.
The financial services clause matters too. If Beijing opens further to American banks and asset managers, European institutions, from HSBC in Hong Kong to the continent’s big insurers, face a stronger rival in a market they have long courted.
Where This Leaves Europe
My view is that this is a truce dressed up as a deal. The headline number is large and the substance is thin, and that suits both leaders, who meet again at APEC in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December. Each wants something to show for the photographs.
For Europe, the lesson is not the size of this package but its logic. Washington and Beijing are negotiating bilaterally, product by product, and Europe is not in the room. Europe’s push for competitiveness needs a trade strategy that works when the superpowers stop fighting, not just when they start. This deal is small, but the next one may not be.
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