By Matthew Ware, CEO of Mark 3 International
“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Thucydides’ fateful words, written nearly 2,500 years ago, seem highly relevant today as China threatens America’s position in the global pecking order.
But where war was once the normal outcome, might Presidents Trump and Xi stay within the realms of a trade battle – and what might that look like long term? At a more granular level, what might it mean for exporters?
The real impact of tariff manipulation
Since its return to office in 2024, President Trump’s administration has imposed a suite of ever-changing tariffs on countries around the world, citing job creation and boosting American manufacturing as the objectives.
Stating clearly on April 2nd that the day would “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn” and going on to say that international friends and foes alike should be ready for “a little tough love”, it’s clear that the President’s aim is to revive America’s fortunes even if it causes pain elsewhere.
While this might be the goal, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the true impact is financial chaos and uncertainty in markets around the world – including the US, with the highly regarded Tax Foundation claiming “The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.”
In Europe and the UK, exporters are facing a potent mixture of higher costs and reduced demand for exports. The result, as the ONS states, is falling US-bound exports of “£0.5 billion (11.4 per cent) in September 2025, to their lowest level since January 2022.” This mirrors wider pressures in global trade explored in Europe’s competitiveness challenges.
While these are startling numbers, further issues arise when you consider how many tariff changes have simply appeared seemingly spontaneously, and with the flimsiest justification. This approach to global diplomacy and trade has fostered an air of uncertainty that makes international commerce – especially for small manufacturers or retailers – particularly hard to navigate.
As the British Government put it: “The mood has taken a protectionist turn around much of the world, threatening the familiar rules of the trading game and marginalising aspects of the multilateral architecture.” Such volatility aligns with a broader pattern of global market instability.
If you want peace, prepare for (trade) war
In the face of all this, it is entirely legitimate to wonder, “why is this happening?” While much of the pain we focus on is euro/UK-centric, it has a lot to do with the influence of China.
Machiavelli wrote, “There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others.” Whilst we aren’t in the tragic throes of armed conflict, it’s fair to say that the tariffs are part of a larger, global issue – the trade war between China and America, where the White House is trying to halt or reverse what it believes to be China’s increasingly aggressive pursuit of global economic dominance.
Where China’s prospects – especially surrounding manufacturing and exports – have risen, they have been mirrored by the gradual decline of post-industrial America. The result has been greater unemployment in formerly industrial areas, much like we see in the UK around previously strong mining, shipping, and other heavy industries.
Earlier this year, tensions between the U.S. and China flared as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods – starting with a 10 per cent blanket duty and later increasing to as much as 145 per cent on certain categories. China responded, raising its own tariffs on U.S. exports – including agricultural products – and restricting exports of critical high-tech inputs like rare-earth minerals. These moves mark a dramatic escalation in a long-running economic rivalry, intertwining trade policy with national security concerns — a dynamic reflected in technology and supply-chain geopolitics.
Amid the escalation, both nations agreed in May this year to a temporary 90-day truce. Under the deal, the U.S. reduced its tariffs on most Chinese goods from extreme highs to around 30 percent, while China cut its retaliatory rates down to about 10 per cent. However, analysts view this as a fragile pause rather than a definitive resolution, with the broader trade war still reflecting deep-seated structural tensions — especially around supply chains, technology, and economic sovereignty.
Real-world impacts on exporters in the face of an ongoing trade war
Whilst centring around the policies of Washington and Beijing, the impact on exporters is being felt around the world – especially as President Trump attempts to balance what he believes to be an unfair trade deficit.
As mentioned, the outcome has been rising costs, but this is coupled with parallel burdens imposed on customers arising from more complex import procedures and the sense of ever-moving goalposts. Knee-jerk reactions and impulsive changes make the trading environment even harsher, and as we enter 2026, it’s vital for exporters and retailers to expect more change and ensure they have access to the skills and expertise to navigate such choppy waters — a theme aligned with Europe’s push for resilience and productivity.
To find out more about Mark 3, please visit www.mk3i.com
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