The Hidden Cost of Black Friday: Why Retailers Are Losing Money

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Ravelin, a leading e-commerce fraud prevention and payments intelligence platform, is urging online retailers to urgently review their payment authentication strategy ahead of Black Friday, as new research shows a sharp global decline in frictionless checkout rates. This drop threatens online sales conversions during one of the most important periods in the digital retail calendar, when high-volume e-commerce transactions put pressure on both fraud detection systems and customer checkout experiences.

According to Ravelin’s Global Payments Report 2026, frictionless authentication has declined in 76% of countries, meaning fewer shoppers are completing purchases through a smooth online checkout. Frictionless transaction rates — successful payment authentications without customer challenges — have now fallen to 54% in North America, 62% in Europe, and 58% globally, highlighting growing strain across digital payment systems, card networks, and issuer authentication processes.

The report also shows that 78% of e-commerce merchants are attempting to reduce checkout friction by using authentication exemptions, but issuing banks are increasingly rejecting these requests as fraud prevention standards become stricter. This growing tension between fraud prevention and checkout experience is exactly what Nets and KPMG highlighted in their analysis of AI-powered fraud detection, where smarter, real-time decisioning can reduce false declines while still blocking genuine threats. This creates a damaging cycle of higher false-positive fraud rates, more declined card transactions, and rising shopping cart abandonment, ultimately leading to lost online revenue and weakened customer trust during peak holiday shopping periods.

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“This peak season, the winners will be merchants who offer their customers the smoothest checkout experiences,” said Martin Sweeney, CEO at Ravelin. “Our research shows that shopping experiences are increasingly interrupted by authentication challenges, and merchants are not taking full advantage of the opportunities for frictionless checkout. This means fewer conversions at a time when consumers’ attention spans are shorter than ever.

“Merchants can deliver frictionless shopping experiences by better utilising the data they gather, sharing richer, contextual information with issuers, and optimising their authentication strategies.”

The report also finds that overall 3D Secure (3DS) success rates have improved only modestly, largely driven by US gains (a 47% increase in 3DS success rate), while the UK remains the global leader in authentication performance.

As the seasonal surge approaches, Ravelin advises retailers to focus on three priorities:

  1. Share more and better data: provide richer data to the card issuer to support the legitimacy of the transaction. Learn from the data you receive back.

  2. Optimise intelligently; don’t always chase the highest exemption: issuer risk tolerances vary, so blanket exemption requests – for example, based on transaction value – can fail. Smarter, adaptable models that tailor decisions to each issuer and transaction can dramatically improve frictionless rates and approval success.

  3. Invest in intelligent authentication systems: utilise historical data and machine learning to predict and prevent friction before it happens.

“Merchants that master data-powered AI-native authentication will convert more customers, protect revenue, and build lasting loyalty at the busiest time of the e-commerce calendar,” added Sweeney.

UK plans to move beyond PSD2

The Global Payments Report also explores the impact of the UK  reforming the currently-applicable European Commission’s Payment Services Directive’s (PSD2) Strong Customer Authentication (SCA) mandate within the country. The UK government’s National Payments Vision (November 2024) outlines plans to explore new, “outcomes-based” approaches to authentication, a move aimed at reducing friction for consumers while maintaining fraud protection.

According to Ravelin’s report, more than half (51%) of British merchants would like to see SCA abolished altogether, reflecting growing frustration over the impact of regulation on customer experience.

This could make the UK an outlier internationally, although the landscape is fast-shifting and merchant attitudes vary. Many Asia-Pacific countries are tightening authentication mandates.

According to the report, 72% of merchants have concerns about how the upcoming PSD3 legislation will affect conversion rates in the EEA — indicating potential support for an alternative approach, similar to the UK’s.

Ravelin’s AI-native solutions are designed to help merchants manage this complexity at scale — including preventing fraud, boosting 3D Secure success, and optimising transactions. Ultimately, they allow merchants to accept more payments with confidence and craft smooth customer journeys without compromising risk or compliance.

Read the full report: Ravelin’s Global Payments Report 2026

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