Gold Holds Range Ahead of Pivotal NFP Report as Geopolitical Risks Support Safe-Haven Demand

Precious metal trades cautiously near $4,470 as investors await US jobs data that could reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations and determine gold’s trajectory for 2026

Gold traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors positioned cautiously ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, a critical data release that could fundamentally reshape expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy throughout 2026.

The precious metal hovered around $4,470 per ounce in early European trading, reflecting the market’s indecision as traders await employment figures that will provide crucial insights into the health of the US labor market. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts this year, and the NFP data will either validate or challenge this view.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report would reinforce the narrative of a cooling labor market, likely supporting gold by strengthening the case for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. Conversely, a resilient reading could challenge easing expectations and trigger near-term pressure on the metal, according to analysis from FXStreet.

“The market is closely watching for the release of the NFP data on Friday, which will likely have a major impact on rate cut expectations and thus could serve as a catalyst for gold’s next big move,” analysts noted. Economists expect payrolls to rise by 60,000 in December, marginally below November’s 64,000 gain, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 4.5%.

The geopolitical backdrop remains firmly supportive of gold’s safe-haven appeal. Rising tensions in multiple regions continue to underpin demand for defensive assets, with escalating tensions in Eastern Europe further reducing the likelihood of a near-term peace agreement and sustaining geopolitical risk premia across global markets.

The situation in Venezuela has emerged as a significant catalyst, with gold jumping nearly 3% earlier this week following the US-led ouster of President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump’s assertion that Washington requires “total access” to Venezuela, including its substantial oil reserves, has amplified geopolitical uncertainty and reinforced gold’s role as a hedge against political instability.

Meanwhile, the US Senate has advanced a resolution aimed at limiting President Trump’s ability to conduct further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval, potentially tempering escalation risk going forward—though analysts suggest the damage to investor confidence may already be priced into safe-haven flows.

Structurally, the picture for gold remains constructive. Global gold exchange-traded funds have recorded strong inflows, with North American funds adding $334 million in a single session even during sharp market declines. The World Gold Council reports that ETF holdings are rebuilding after years of outflows, though total tonnage remains below pandemic-era peaks, suggesting the sector is not over-allocated.

The metal has also continued to benefit from strategic central bank purchases. China extended its gold-buying streak to 14 consecutive months in December, while emerging-market central banks are projected to purchase 585 tonnes quarterly throughout 2026, according to projections cited by market intelligence firms.

This combination of official sector demand and strategic portfolio diversification—what some analysts term the “debasement trade”—reflects growing concerns over sovereign debt levels and the long-term stability of fiat currencies. Goldman Sachs maintains a base-case forecast of $4,900 per ounce for year-end 2026, with risks skewed to the upside.

Technical analysts note that gold must hold above the critical $4,400 support zone to maintain its bullish structure. A sustained break below this level could open the door to a deeper correction toward $4,200–$4,300, while a decisive move above $4,500 would expose targets near $4,650–$4,700.

For now, all eyes remain on Friday’s NFP report. As one strategist observed, the data will serve as the “ultimate litmus test” for the Federal Reserve’s policy path—and by extension, for gold’s trajectory in the opening quarter of 2026.