Britain’s Last Pre-War Fuel Tankers Arrive Next Week — Then the Real Problem Begins

Quick Answer: Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned that Europe, including the UK, will begin to feel the full impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure in April as the last tanker shipments loaded before the war began arrive and existing reserves start to deplete. Asda has already reported pump shortages at some forecourts. Petrol has breached 150p per litre for the first time in nearly two years. Diesel has risen 35p since late February. The government says there is no shortage — but the supply chain arithmetic tells a more uncomfortable story.

The Ripple Effect Is Now Reaching Britain

The disruption to global oil supply that began on 28 February has followed a predictable geographic sequence. South Asia was hit first. Then Southeast Asia. Then Northeast Asia. Now, as Shell’s CEO put it in Houston last week, “more so into Europe as we get into April.” The logic is simple: tankers loaded at Gulf ports before the Strait of Hormuz was closed take between three and five weeks to reach European shores. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, has been virtually halted since Iran closed it in response to US-Israeli military actions. British Brief The last of those pre-war cargoes are now arriving. Once they dock, the pipeline runs dry.

The UK’s structural position makes it more exposed than most European peers. The closure of the Grangemouth refinery in 2025 reduced domestic refining capacity significantly. Britain now has just four operating refineries — compared to seventeen in the 1970s — and is increasingly dependent on imported refined product rather than crude. That means any tightening in tanker availability, insurance coverage or global shipping routes hits the UK faster and harder than countries with more domestic refining infrastructure.

What the Numbers Show

The price of unleaded petrol reached 150.1 pence per litre — the first time it has breached that threshold in nearly two years — representing a rise of 17.3 pence since late February. Diesel has climbed even more steeply, rising 35.3 pence to 177.7 pence per litre. Share Talk At motorway service stations, diesel is trading at 182p. The cost of filling a family car has risen to approximately £80.

Asda, the nation’s second-largest fuel retailer, has acknowledged that demand has surged significantly, resulting in some pumps running dry at select stations as nervous drivers rush to fill their tanks before prices climb further. Share Talk Industry bodies have sought to reassure the public that supply is flowing normally. The government has said it does not recognise claims of an imminent diesel shortage in mid-April. But unconfirmed reports from industry insiders have warned government ministers of exactly that scenario.

The Rationing Question

The word that no government wants to say publicly is now being used openly by industry. Shell’s CEO warned that countries across Europe could be forced to restrict energy demand within weeks. As the oil shock moves from theoretical to physical across global markets, analysts at major oil companies are sketching out a scenario in which the world hits what one described as an “oil cliff” in mid-April — when strategic petroleum reserve releases, currently offsetting roughly 20 days of Hormuz closure, run out.

The UK government holds emergency oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports under IEA rules — a buffer that provides genuine protection. But that buffer assumes a resumption of normal supply within a reasonable timeframe. With Trump threatening to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure and oil now at $116, the April 6 deadline hanging over markets and the Houthis now firing missiles at Israel, a swift resolution looks less likely than it did a week ago.

The Longer-Term Exposure

Britain’s vulnerability is not just about the next few weeks. The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets, and the damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf — including the partial damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities which its operator warned could take years to repair — means that even a ceasefire does not immediately restore supply. Kuwait’s national oil company CEO has said it could take three to four months to return to full production once the war ends.

For British consumers and businesses, the immediate message is straightforward. The fuel that is cheap enough to ignore in normal times has become a strategic commodity. The tankers arriving next week are the last comfortable moment before that reality becomes unavoidable.