SpaceX Pitches Investors a $1.78 Trillion Valuation. The Roadshow Has Begun

EBM Newsdesk Analysis — By Katie Winearls

The largest IPO in history is no longer a matter of speculation. SpaceX began formal marketing to investors this week, pitching a valuation of $1.78 trillion and a fundraise of up to $75 billion that would shatter Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record by a margin that would have seemed implausible three years ago. Pricing is expected as early as 11 June. Trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX could begin the following day.

The roadshow marks the beginning of the most scrutinised investor conversation in recent capital markets history — and the numbers at its centre are not straightforward.

The Valuation and the Revenue Gap

SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $14 billion the previous year. During that period, the company swung from a profit of $791 million in 2024 to a loss of $4.94 billion last year. That combination — accelerating revenue growth alongside a widening loss — is the central tension in SpaceX’s investment case, and it is the one that institutional investors will be pressing hardest on during the roadshow. BitMEX

A $1.78 trillion valuation on $18.7 billion in revenue implies a price-to-sales multiple of approximately 95 times. Even by the standards of high-growth technology companies that number demands justification — and SpaceX’s S-1 attempts to provide it by reframing the total addressable market. According to Bloomberg, the filing pitches a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, encompassing satellite internet, launch services, space-based data centres and AI infrastructure. The argument is that SpaceX is not a rocket company being priced as a rocket company — it is an AI services and infrastructure giant that happens to launch its own hardware.

The Morningstar Warning

Not everyone is buying that framing. Morningstar’s discounted cash flow valuation of SpaceX is $780 billion — roughly 48% below the IPO target — with analysts warning that the upcoming IPO does not offer the best entry point for retail investors. Yahoo Finance

The Morningstar assessment cuts to the heart of what makes this IPO commercially complex. The $4.94 billion loss in 2025 was driven by the company’s aggressive investment in Starship development, orbital data centre infrastructure and the xAI integration following the February 2026 merger. These are investments in future revenue streams that do not yet appear in the income statement. The question is whether public market investors will price the optionality that private market investors have been rewarding — or apply a more conventional earnings-based discipline to a company that is not currently profitable.

As we reported in our earlier analysis of why investors have been racing to get SpaceX exposure ahead of the IPO, the secondary market for pre-IPO stakes has been extraordinarily active precisely because sophisticated capital understands that the most explosive phase of value creation has historically occurred before listing. The Morningstar figure suggests that some of that value creation may already be reflected in the IPO price — leaving less upside for investors coming in at the public offering.

The xAI Factor

The investment case that SpaceX is presenting to investors in 2026 is materially different from the one it could have made twelve months ago — because the company is materially different. The February merger with xAI, which valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, added AI infrastructure, data centre capacity and Grok’s language model capabilities to SpaceX’s commercial profile. The S-1 explicitly positions the combined entity not as a space company but as an integrated AI, data and space infrastructure platform.

That positioning is commercially significant. As we explored in our analysis of Anthropic’s $65 billion Series H and the frontier AI capital race it represents, the companies generating the highest valuation multiples in the current market are those that can credibly claim to be building AI infrastructure at scale. SpaceX’s pitch is that orbital data centres — processing AI workloads in space, closer to satellite internet customers — represent the next frontier of that infrastructure buildout. It is an ambitious argument. It is also one that no listed company has previously made at this scale.

The European Exclusion

For European institutional investors and asset managers, the roadshow crystallises a structural problem that has been building for years. As we reported in our analysis of why European banks are being frozen out of the SpaceX underwriting syndicate, the deal is being led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan. European banks do not feature among the lead underwriters — a commercial exclusion that means European capital arrives as a buyer at the price set by Wall Street rather than as a participant in setting it.

The consequence is not merely symbolic. Underwriting fees on a $75 billion raise are substantial. The relationships built during the IPO process — with SpaceX management, with co-investors, with the institutional accounts that define the book — are relationships that compound in commercial value over years. Europe’s absence from the syndicate is one transaction in a pattern that is gradually reshaping the relative commercial weight of European and American capital markets.

What Happens Next

Pricing on 11 June. Trading on 12 June — subject to SEC review and market conditions. The roadshow between now and then is the final negotiation between SpaceX’s management and the institutional capital that will determine whether the $1.78 trillion valuation holds or is revised further.

As we noted in our coverage of the AI IPO cycle and the dot-com parallels that are beginning to emerge, the pipeline of landmark listings now forming represents the most significant capital markets moment in a generation. SpaceX is its centrepiece. The valuation debate that the roadshow will generate is the most important pricing conversation in global markets this year.

Related Analysis

Investors Race to Get Exposure to SpaceX Ahead of IPO — The secondary market frenzy and European bank exclusion that set the context for this week’s formal investor roadshow.

Anthropic Files for IPO as SpaceX and OpenAI Queue Up — The broader AI listing cycle in which SpaceX’s debut sits — and the dot-com parallels that sophisticated investors are beginning to flag.

Elon Musk’s Net Worth Surpasses Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund — How the SpaceX valuation trajectory has already reshaped Musk’s personal balance sheet — and what a successful IPO would mean for his position as the world’s wealthiest individual.