How to make informed NFL picks

The NFL season comes thick and fast, with games taking place every weekend and consistent action. Back-and-forth ball throwing from one end of the pitch to the other. Fantasy football still remains America’s favorite way to get involved from home, but sports betting is also on the rise and has recently taken over the offshore sportsbooks in Europe.

Form Comes into Play with American Football

American Football is usually a high-scoring game. It is when you consider that a successful period can see a team earn six or seven points if they earn a touchdown and convert the following field goal. This isn’t like soccer, where a successful score is worth a single point, and the scoring action isn’t so freely allowed, meaning that goals in soccer are precious. American Football results will generally lead towards the form team throughout a game.

When selecting based on a result, look at the last few results for both teams. Upsets and shock results happen but are much less frequent than in other sports. Underdog selections should be made with serious consideration. Also be wary that some offshore sportsbooks for European players will bring in “insiders” to offer picks, but if they’re employed by the bookmaker then it’s more difficult to trust. 

Another critical aspect of American Football teams is what type of season they are having. While all franchises dream of winning the Super Bowl, many go through re-building phases, which will keep them firmly out of contention for many seasons. For example, consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that was not a contender for many years but emerged as the Super Bowl winners when they acquired Tom Brady. Of course, the New England Patriots sank into a non-competitive phase after his departure. Going 1-6 in their first seven games of the 2024 season suggests that they are still in their re-building phase; as such, they should be considered underdogs for most games they play.

Starter QB Form and Status

Another attribute distinguishing American Football from other sports is how vital one team player can be. The quarterback is the team composer, determining how the team needs to move up the pitch. Franchises typically have one stellar QB, and the rest are reserve options. Analyzing these skill positions is crucial, as having one of the best wide receivers of all time can be just as impactful as a top-tier QB, fundamentally changing a team’s offensive capabilities.

Analyzing these skill positions is crucial, as having one of the best wide receivers of all time can be just as impactful as a top-tier QB, fundamentally

Be sure to study quarterback performances and injury news. A team losing its starting quarterback can be disastrous for their season. However, bettors who take advantage of the changing circumstances can also be very profitable.

Home Advantage

Playing on home turf is always an advantage for any sports team in any discipline, but it is amplified in American Football for many reasons. Consider the landscape of America. When the New York Giants play the Los Angeles Rams in California, how many Giants fans do you think make the trip across the breadth of the country? Also, bear in mind the logistical strains on the away team. They may have had to travel for multiple hours to play in front of a crowd that is 99% vehemently wanting them to lose.

In the same consideration, teams are used to their home conditions. For example, when the Arizona Cardinals play the Denver Broncos, at least one of the teams will be uncomfortable, given that Arizona is relatively warm, whereas Denver is generally much colder. It is worth noting that these professional players should be able to play no matter the climate, but it can make a difference.

Consider the home team in every game and the likelihood of how much of an impact it will have on the away team. Make your prediction accordingly, considering whether the home team has enough advantage to win the game.

State of the Competition

If you’re considering betting on an NFL regular season fixture, assess what is riding on the result for each team. For example, one team may already be eliminated from qualifying for the post-season. As such, the players and coaching team might be unable to produce a competitive performance or have the mental capacity to perform as desired.

Conversely, if a team has everything to play for, say on decision day, and needs a result to secure post-season football, then it is worth considering that the team may be able to produce its best performance when it is required.

Head-to-Head Results Between Teams

The division rivals will play each other twice throughout the NFL regular season. Therefore, when the Buffalo Bills play the New England Patriots, you can assess the prior results, whether from the reverse fixture earlier this season or the scores from last year. As divisional rivals play one another so frequently, there will be a ream of data on these matchups.