European Business caught up with Simon Calton, CEO of the Carlton James Group, a private investment group specializing in diversified portfolios across varying global asset classes, who like many, believes there will be a negative impact on the economy, mainly the weakening of the euro which will create ripple effect on economies across the world.
However, Simon is also optimistic about the investment opportunities Brexit will create on a global scale, then the likelihood that they continue to occur as other countries consider the same, creating a repetitive curve
Any investor would serve themselves well to review the last few market downturns and review which asset classes do well in those particular times. A portion of any investor’s funds should be diversified into protective asset classes, although the emphasis on where (Europe vs. everywhere else) may vary depending on who you talk to. It’s our belief that Brexit (if or when it actually goes ahead) will affect most of the world. Good or bad, geographical location is only one part of any investment. We believe diversification is key to obtain Capital Preservation.
The major threat for Europe, but mainly the UK, is a social one, which in turn greatly effects the economics of a country more than is normally stated. The lack of leadership in such a situation bears a huge social issue which will divide the UK and in turn much of western society further. Bringing forth an overdue market adjustment only feeds this division. Half actions have proven to be meaningless. The opportunity of any downturn comes from the knowledge that as soon as there is conclusion most economies bounce back in the continued cycle of bust and boom. Investing in a bust and standing fast can assist an investor to make a lot of money in the next boom stage. It’s a very simple concept that many fail to follow.
The economic impacts that come with Brexit are dependent on the outcome. If Brexit is to actually occur, the effect it will have on the EU may start a chain of events where a number of other EU countries follow suit. The impact on the euro may put strain on these EU member states. The knowledge of how not to do it, demonstrated by the UK, will help those countries that wish to leave.
The UK will need closer ties to major economic giants globally. Of course, the US will be a big player in Britain’s trade future, but also greater ties to countries like India and China through trade deals that will bring significant opportunities for investors around the globe. The Belt and Road initiative is a huge opportunity and one that the UK will need work strengthening their ties with the involved countries along the southern part of this vision, including those in the middle east and southern parts of Asia.
In addition to this there are always opportunities for investors to profit from conditions once the dust settles and closure is obtained. Once there is some kind of certainty of the direction its going in, that will become clearer. ‘The unknown’ is the issue.
We are a diversified investment group. We see opportunities in every economic scenario, with Brexit being just the latest. The point here is that there isn’t a singular most significant opportunity whilst we are in limbo. At least not long-term opportunities!
Spikey and stagnant at the same time. Short-term trading can earn great returns during these spikes, but the risks are too high for many investment groups to earn consistently from this. It’s outside the algorithms that many institutes use. How can one make a structured and devised plan when there is little research you can do to calculate risk? Because of this, many short-term investments are rangy and come with a high risk.
Not at all. The Carlton James Group’s ethos is to prepare for Global economic busts. The next bust is over-due, and Brexit will push us this way. We have structured our products with this in mind. We used research and historical movements to assist these structures. What does hurt us, and many others, is the current is the lack of closure of Brexit.